The governments housing targets – putting the pressure on councils!

In July 2024 the government introduced new housing targets.  Overall the objective is for a total of 1.5 million over a four-year period or 375,000 per annum. The rationale was that there is a housing shortage and a greater supply would make housing cheaper.

 

The evidence suggests otherwise.  There is already a surplus of 1.5 million dwellings in England. Problems of affordability and poor quality housing will not be addressed by building more. There are policy options to deal with current problems including investment in updating existing properties, changing the mortgage market to assist first time buyers, changing the private rental market and providing support to renters. Its not a case of building more it’s a case of improving what we have and using the existing surplus.

 

The government is persisting with its policy and plans to ‘toughen’ it up.  “Angela Rayner is poised to introduce tougher sanctions on councils in England that block local housing developments. Councils could be forced to approve new housing developments – overturning locally agreed plans – under stricter rules or risk handing over control of their planning departments to Whitehall officials.”  [Guardian, 29th August].

 

How many new dwellings do we need in England?

What would a sensible target look like? The table below shows the annual rates of relevant variables – net additions in dwellings, all dwelling growth , projected household growth and past household growth.

 

Currently dwelling numbers and net additions are increasing at a higher level than household growth. This reflects the growth of properties which are either empty, second homes or holiday lets. 

 

The current net additional dwelling figure – 189,300, could be used for the higher target, with the projected household growth figure of 171,000 for the lower level.   At the same time the number of unoccupied properties should be reduced. 

 

Local targets would be based on the relevant variable and adjusted to take account of the number of unoccupied dwellings.

  

Conclusion

The government’s new housing targets represent a significant increase in numbers up from 300,000 to 375,000.  The Government has used flawed assumptions and accepted that supply or the lack of it is the root cause of housing problems.  As well as leading to unnecessary and unsustainable development the policy will not actually solve the problems it purports to deal with.

 

Evidence suggests that a lower target of between 171,000 and 203,000 would be more appropriate allied with a range of policy measures to address the various aspects of housing. These would seek to resolve the contributory factors, which together have created a housing crisis. At the same time policies to reduce the number of second homes and holiday lets could be introduced.

 

Sources

Guardian, August 2025. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/aug/29/rayner-could-hit-english-councils-that-block-housing-developments-with-tougher-sanctions

ONS census data

ONS, population projections and household projections.