Migration in Cornwall – an analysis by occupational group

Summary

Data from the 2021 census shows that a higher proportion of people moving to Cornwall (51.5%) are in the top occupational groups compared to the resident population, (32.5%). This implies that better paid jobs help non-residents more than residents. Encouraging higher income migrants will also have consequences for the housing market.

 

The data

Origin-destination data from the 2021 census, released by the ONS, allows for an analysis of data about how many households have moved to and from Cornwall oer the previous year. [Had a different address one year previously]. This shows that there are differences in the profile of the various categories which has an impact on society and policy implications.

 

A comparison of the profile for households of Cornwall with that of the inflow from the rest of the UK and outside the UK illustrates some interesting differences. The top six occupational groups , accounted for 32.5% of households in Cornwall whereas the profile of all those who had moved to Cornwall indicated that these categories accounted for 51.5% of that group. This is a substantial difference. Incoming migrants were 1.6 times more likely to be in the higher groups than the existing population.

 

Intermediate categories were similar for each group with 9.5% and 9.6% respectively. The share of students was higher in the inflow group at 1.6% compared to a resident share of 0.6%. For the remaining groups the shares were 57.4% in Cornwall and 37.5% for all inflow group.

 

In general the ‘outside UK’ group showed a similar pattern to the UK inflow group although the top six categories accounted for a higher share with 54%. It should be noted that of the ‘all inflow' group of 5,984, 5,434 or 91% were from the UK.

 

As well as an inflow of people there was also an outflow of people from Cornwall. Total inflows, including those from outside the UK totalled 5,984 households, while the outflow totalled 2,856, resulting in a net inflow of 3,128.

 

What does it mean?

The data suggests that although the Cornish economy may be creating more managerial, administrative and professional jobs, rather than improving the income and status of residents a large proportion of these new jobs are being filled by people who move to Cornwall.

 

This means a surface improvement in the employment profile, with more high quality jobs, is not as beneficial as it might appear at first sight.

 

The inflow of households in the top socio-economic categories also has implications for the housing market. The households in these categories will have greater purchasing power in the housing market and will therefore be able to out-compete existing residents. It also raises the question of whether those developers who build dwellings at the upper end of the market have this particular group in mind.

 

The role of the labour market in Cornwall requires attention. It is not a closed system operating only within Cornwall but is open to anyone in the UK, particularly in relation to higher paid jobs.

 

Policy pointers

What measures might assist in shifting the balance of new high paid jobs to residents?  Should there be a ‘resident premium’ to encourage employers to prioritise existing residents when appointing people? Would funding to improve training for current workers ensure a pool of potential workers for the future?