Cutting carbon – the Cornish dimension

A dense area of woodland

In the previous post, we saw that we would need to cover virtually all the land surface of the UK with trees to offset the forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that will remain in 2050. Although more woodland and trees would clearly be very beneficial for the UK, it is hardly a solution to the GHG emissions problem. So what is the situation in Cornwall?

 

What we know

The area covered by woods in Cornwall in 2019 was estimated  by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), at 33,456 ha -equivalent to 9.4 per cent of the total area.  Friends of the Earth have produced an alternative estimate of woodland cover, which gives a figure of 47,863 hectares (13.5 per cent of land cover).

 

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy estimates that forestry removed 253.7 kilotonnes of carbon equal to 6.8 per cent of total GHG emissions, or 6.5 per cent when adjusted to take overall Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry LULUCF numbers.  In 2022, forestry removed 6.9 per cent of emissions.

 

Gross greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were estimated at 3,729 kilotonnes, net emissions were 3,488 kilotonnes. [This is an under-estimate as GHG emission data are residence based rather than consumption based so do not take account of all contributions to emissions]. 

 

A report by Exeter University estimated that by 2050 GHG emissions would have fallen to between 1,652 kilotonnes or 930 kilotonnes depending on the policies adopted.

 

How much carbon will trees sequester?

This is an area fraught with technical problems. How much trees  can remove each year depends on a range of factors including the tree species, age of trees, management and location.  There is also an issue around what we count – just woods and forest or including trees in hedgerows?

 

The methodology

The approach used here is the same as that adopted for the UK work. The only difference being that there are two estimates of how much carbon would need to be removed in 2050. These are based on the estimated 2050 GHG levels calculated in the University of Exeter report.

 

So what do we need?

The tables below sets out how much land would be needed to offset the estimated net emissions in 2050. 

 

 Upper target - 1,652Kt

 

Scenario base	Existing forest cover (Km2)	Additional area needed (Km2)	Total area required (Km2)	Per cent of Cornish land area
Exmoor study	335	2,215	2550	72
Carbon Brief	335	2,945	3279	92
Committee for Climate Change	335	3,159	3494	98

 Lower target - 930Kt

Scenario base	Existing forest cover (Km2)	Additional area needed (Km2)	Total area required (Km2)	Per cent of Cornish land area
Exmoor study	335	1015	1350	38
Carbon Brief	335	1402	1736	49
Committee for Climate Change	335	1515	1850	52

 Conclusion

Increasing woodland cover in Cornwall is an admirable objective and policies to encourage tree planting are to be welcomed. However, the evidence suggests that it impossible to plant enough land to take out the carbon equivalent emissions forecast for 2050.  Cutting emissions is the most beneficial way forward. Even the most optimistic scenario would require 38 per cent of the land surface to be planted for tree cover.

 

Changes to lifestyle will be integral to any changes in policy. Policies to reduce emissions in Cornwall must include:

Ending air travel;

Limiting other transport emissions;

Changes to diet;

Lower consumption levels.

 

But most important we need an end to constant growth in housing development which is neither necessary nor sustainable.