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Data on tenure – watch out for the bear traps and other pitfalls!

rpwills
Analysing data on housing tenure is problematical for a number of reasons. As is often the case there are issues about the data.
 
An important source is the census but other sources such as the Annual estimate of tenure from ONS provide a means of assessing housing tenure and use of dwellings. 

 
What do the figures tell us?
The comparison below shows data from the census and annual estimates from ONS. Different data sources give different results but overall the total dwelling figures are very close, which indicates a high degree of reliability.
 
What are the main points to emerge from the data?  Firstly, the census gives 30,600 fewer owning a property. This is because the census records dwellings with households; the ONS estimate is total dwellings. The main component of this is accounted for by properties owned outright where the census has 26,400 fewer.
 
Of the 196,500, 166,000 are used on a permanent basis with 30,600 either used as second homes – 13,260 [Council tax base data], and 7,700 used as holiday lets, resulting with 9,640 other dwellings.
 
Private rented totals are 7,700 lower. This is a consequence of the ONS figure including holiday lets as well as dwellings rented out on a permanent basis. Presumably these 7,700 are owned either outright or with a mortgage. 
 
Social rented totals are very similar.  ONS data [Table 100] shows 252,900 dwellings in the private sector, 37,600 higher than the 215,300 estimated in the census – derived from adding the ‘Owned total’ to the ‘Private rent’ figure.  This is some 2,500 higher than the unoccupied total in the census.
 
Source/Tenure
Census 2021 HH
ONS annual estimates (2021)
Difference
Private sector
215300
*252900
-37600
Owned outright
104700
131000
-26400
Owned with mortgage
61300
65500
-4200
Owned total
166000
196500
-30600
Social rent
32000
32600
-600
Rent free
200
0
0
Shared ownership
2900
0
0
Private rent
49400
57100
-7700
Unoccupied cen 21
35100
0
35100
Total
285600
286200
-600
*   ONS Table 100.
 
Issues
The 7,700 holiday lets estimate is lower than the 9,500 total derived from Business rates data. The census identified 35,000 unoccupied properties. Some of these will be second homes or holiday lets and others will be vacant/empty properties.  Different sources will result in different figures and the ONS figures are estimates, which means the actual figures for each category could well vary from the estimates.
 
Conclusion
The current system of data from the Council Tax Base, Business Rates, together with the ten yearly census does not provide a robust source of data on housing. There are gaps in the data, overlapping categories and definitional issues.  Some second homes may be used as holiday lets, some holiday lets are not on the Business Rates list as they fall below the relevant threshold.
 
There is a need for a comprehensive database showing what properties are used for and the ownership. This would provide the means to assess what is happening in the housing arena and assist in planning.  Government needs to step forward and provide the necessary funding to establish and run an agency for this purpose.
 
Sources
ONS. Dwelling Stock table 100: Dwelling stock by local authority and region, England, 31 March 2009 to 31 March 2023
 
ONS, Sub-national estimates of dwellings by tenure, England, 2012 to 2021.
 
ONS/NOMIS, census 2021.
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